Australia’s new-vehicle market might be bigger than it was a decade ago, but it’s also more fragmented.
Total sales rose from 1,155,408 deliveries in 2015 to 1,241,037 in 2025, a gain of 85,629 vehicles. Yet over the same span, the top end of the market ceded meaningful share to a growing ‘long tail’ of smaller and mid-size auto brands.
The clearest measure is concentration. In 2015, the top 10 marques accounted for 75.9 per cent of all new-vehicle sales. In 2025, the top 10’s share fell to 67.3 per cent. In other words, nearly one in three new vehicles sold last year came from outside the 10 biggest brands, up from one in four back in 2015.
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The top 10 brands combined delivered 877,399 vehicles in 2015. In 2025, the top 10 delivered 835,515 – 41,884 fewer vehicles – despite the overall market being higher. The entire decade’s net growth came from outside the top 10, where combined sales climbed from 278,009 units in 2015 to 405,522 units in 2025 (up 127,513).
Even the dominance of the top three brands softened slightly in terms of share. The top three held 36.6 per cent of the market in 2015, versus 34.3 per cent in 2025 – despite their combined volume being effectively flat across the decade (423,211 in 2015 versus 426,185 in 2025). The market expanded beneath them.
For the statisticians, the HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) went from 777 in 2015 to 709 in 2025.
Brand concentration snapshot
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Total market (units) | 1,155,408 | 1,241,037 |
| Total marques listed | 68 | 79 |
| Marques ≥10,000 sales | 19 | 23 |
| Marques ≥1,000 sales | 39 | 48 |
| Top 3 marques share | 36.6% | 34.3% |
| Top 10 marques share | 75.9% | 67.3% |
| Top 20 marques share | 94.5% | 89.0% |
| Outside top 10 (units) | 278,009 | 405,522 |
| Outside top 10 share | 24.1% | 32.7% |
| HHI | 777 | 709 |
What’s striking here is that more brands are doing meaningful volume at the same time as the ‘big 10’ are becoming less dominant. The number of marques surpassing 10,000 sales increased from 19 to 23, and marques above 1000 sales lifted from 39 to 48. That’s a sign of small-scale brands struggling in a market with more large-scale players than it had 10 years ago.
It’s worth noting that Australia is a test bed for many Chinese brands that use its relative size, ease of access and lack of tariffs to test their products on western tastes before heading to larger and far more costly markets.
Going back in time, the list of top 10 brands in 2015 reads like a snapshot from the end of a golden era for Australian manufacturing. Holden was still a major force, Honda was still a high-volume mainstream brand, and several Japanese and European marques sat comfortably inside the top 10.
Top 10 marques – 2015
| Rank | Marque | Sales | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toyota | 206,236 | 17.8% |
| 2 | Mazda | 114,024 | 9.9% |
| 3 | Holden | 102,951 | 8.9% |
| 4 | Hyundai | 102,004 | 8.8% |
| 5 | Mitsubishi | 71,743 | 6.2% |
| 6 | Ford | 70,454 | 6.1% |
| 7 | Nissan | 66,062 | 5.7% |
| 8 | Volkswagen | 60,225 | 5.2% |
| 9 | Subaru | 43,600 | 3.8% |
| 10 | Honda | 40,100 | 3.5% |
Now compare that with 2025: Holden is gone from the list (and the market), and a wave of newer entrants has forced its way into the top tier – including multiple Chinese brands.
Top 10 marques – 2025
| Rank | Marque | Sales | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toyota | 239,863 | 19.3% |
| 2 | Ford | 94,399 | 7.6% |
| 3 | Mazda | 91,923 | 7.4% |
| 4 | Kia | 82,105 | 6.6% |
| 5 | Hyundai | 77,208 | 6.2% |
| 6 | Mitsubishi | 61,198 | 4.9% |
| 7 | GWM | 52,809 | 4.3% |
| 8 | BYD | 52,415 | 4.2% |
| 9 | Isuzu Ute | 42,297 | 3.4% |
| 10 | MG | 41,298 | 3.3% |
A key point: the ‘cut line’ for the top 10 hasn’t moved much. In 2015, the 10th-placed brand sold 40,100 vehicles; in 2025, the number was 41,298. What changed is how much volume sits outside that top group, and how many brands are now capable of hovering around (or above) that 40,000-50,000 mark.
At the very top, Toyota has actually strengthened its lead. In 2015, Toyota’s margin over second-placed Mazda was 92,212 units. In 2025, Toyota’s lead over second-placed Ford expanded to 145,464.
Several brands that barely registered in 2015 (or weren’t listed at all) became genuine volume players by 2025.
Key takeouts from the 2015 marque table:
- Great Wall Motors recorded 142 deliveries in 2015; the rebranded GWM delivered 52,809 in 2025
- Chery rose from 201 in 2015 to 34,889 in 2025
- MG didn’t appear in the 2015 marque list, yet delivered 41,298 units in 2025 (enough for a top-10 placing)
This is what market dilution looks like in practice. Toyota is still huge, but there are simply more brands taking meaningful bites out of the remaining market.
If you’re looking for the “when did it really spread out?” moment, 2023 stands out as the year that changed the landscape. Across 2015-2025, the market’s lowest top‑10 share occurred in 2023, when the top 10 fell to 66.9 per cent and the top three dipped to 33.1 per cent. It wasn’t that the top brands collapsed, it was that the middle of the market expanded quickly.
Interesting facts:
- The market grew 85,629 units from 2015 to 2025, but the top 10 brands’ combined volume fell by 41,884
- The ‘outside top 10’ portion of the market grew by 127,513 units over the decade (from 278,009 to 405,522)
- The number of marques listed increased from 68 to 79
- Toyota’s sales rose from 206,236 to 239,863, while its lead over second place widened from 92,212 to 145,464
Rusted-on Toyota buyers are still going strong and it’s clear that Australia still has a dominant number-one brand, but the market behind it has become more competitive, more crowded, and more dynamic – with far more brands now capable of scaling up to five-figure annual volume.
This is great for consumers who have more choice now than ever, but the question has to be asked: how much longer can our market sustain so many makes and models?
MORE: Another record year for new vehicle sales in Australia, but growth modest overall in 2025
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